Housing Market Conditions Continue To Improve Across Eighth District During 4Q 2014

March 09, 2015

ST. LOUIS – Housing market conditions continued to improve during the fourth quarter of 2014 across the seven states that comprise the St. Louis Fed's Eighth District, with home values rising and mortgage delinquencies declining, according to the St. Louis Fed’s latest Housing Market Conditions report.

The quarterly report provides a snapshot of housing market conditions in the U.S. and the Eighth District, which covers the states of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee.* The report also breaks down data for the District’s four main metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Little Rock, Ark.; Louisville, Ky.; Memphis, Tenn.; and St. Louis. To provide a more complete snapshot of current home price conditions, the St. Louis Fed's Housing Market Conditions report now includes CoreLogic Housing Price Index data, along with Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data.

Housing Prices: FHFA

Based on Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data, house prices in all Eighth District states rose during the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter. The largest gains in the District were seen in Missouri, which rose 3.2 percent, and Indiana, which rose 1.4 percent. Nationally, house prices rose 1.3 percent during this time period.

On a year-to-year basis, prices were also higher across all states. The states with the largest gains were Missouri, which was up 7.8 percent, and Tennessee, which was up 7 percent. Nationally, prices were up 6 percent during this time period.

By MSA, prices rose on a quarter-over-quarter basis in the Little Rock, Louisville and St. Louis MSAs, while declining slightly in Memphis. On a year-over-year basis, fourth quarter prices were higher in all four MSAs, with Memphis showing the largest gain of 4.6 percent.

House prices have now surpassed their respective pre-recession highs in the Little Rock and Louisville MSAs, as well as in the state of Indiana, according to FHFA data.

Housing Prices: CoreLogic

Based on CoreLogic data, housing prices also rose in all Eighth District states on a quarter-over-quarter basis, as well as on a year-over-year basis. The largest quarter-over-quarter gains for the District were seen in Mississippi, which was up 2.1 percent. Nationally, prices were up 1.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the largest year-over-year gains for the fourth quarter of 2014 were also seen in Mississippi, where house prices rose 6.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2013. Nationally, prices rose 5 percent.

By MSA, prices rose on a quarter-over-quarter basis in all four of the Eighth District's main MSAs. They also rose on a year-over-year basis in all MSAs except Little Rock, which showed a slight decline of 0.2 percent.

According to CoreLogic data, house prices have now surpassed their respective pre-recession highs in the Louisville MSA and the state of Tennessee.

Eighth District 4Q 2014 House Price Performance - FHFA

State/MSA	Quarter over Quarter	Year over Year
U.S.	+ 1.3 %	+ 6.0 %
AR	+ 0.6 %	+ 4.2 %
IL	+ 0.6 %	+ 4.4 %
IN	+ 1.4 %	+ 4.3 %
KY	+ 1.1 %	+ 4.6 %
MO	+ 3.2 %	+ 7.8 %
MS	+ 0.9 %	+ 4.3 %
TN	+ 1.0 %	+ 7.0 %
Little Rock	+ 1.2 %	+ 1.9 %
Louisville	+ 0.9 %	+ 3.7 %
Memphis	- 0.1 %	+ 4.6 %
St. Louis	+ 0.5 %	+ 4.4 %

Eighth District 4Q 2014 House Price Performance - CoreLogic

State/MSA	Quarter over Quarter	Year over Year
U.S.	+ 1.5 %	+ 5.0 %
AR	+ 0.7 %	+ 1.2 %
IL	+ 0.3 %	+ 1.7 %
IN	+ 1.2 %	+ 3.2 %
KY	+ 1.0 %	+ 4.5 %
MO	+ 1.7 %	+ 4.1 %
MS	+ 2.1 %	+ 6.1 %
TN	+ 1.2 %	+ 4.6 %
Little Rock	+ 0.6%	- 0.2 %
Louisville	+ 0.9 %	+ 4.7 %
Memphis	+ 0.6 %	+ 0.1 %
St. Louis	+ 1.6 %	+ 4.7 %

Mortgage Delinquencies

In the fourth quarter of 2014, the percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages (delinquent 90 days or more, or in foreclosure) continued to decline in all Eighth District states.

In Kentucky and Missouri, delinquencies fell below the national average of 3.99 percent, while Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi and Tennessee remained above. Mississippi continued to have the highest level of mortgage delinquencies among the Eighth District states, at 6.48 percent, while Missouri continued to have the lowest rate of 3.11 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages also fell in the Little Rock, Louisville and Memphis MSAs, and remained unchanged in St. Louis. Still, at 3.49 percent, St. Louis continued to remain below the national average and had the lowest percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages among the District's four main MSAs.

Eighth District 4Q 2014 Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

State/MSA	Percent Seriously Delinquent	Change in basis points (bps)
U.S.	3.99%	- 8 bps
AR	4.36%	- 1 bps
IL	4.62%	- 19 bps
IN	4.54%	- 5 bps
KY	3.76%	- 10 bps
MO	3.11%	- 1 bps
MS	6.48%	- 7 bps
TN	4.01%	- 11 bps
Little Rock	4.85%	- 5 bps
Louisville	3.85%	- 9 bps
Memphis	6.70%	- 14 bps
St. Louis	3.49%	0 bps

* Please note: While the Eighth District is comprised of the entire state of Arkansas and only parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, analysis is conducted on a statewide basis for each state's respective report.