Financial Market Stress Rises for First Time in Two Months

Please note: Data values previously published are subject to revision. For more information, refer to the vintage series in ALFRED®.

Financial market stress rose for the first time in eight weeks, according to the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI). For the week ending March 13, 2015, the STLFSI measured -1.007, up slightly from the previous week’s revised value of -1.066.

Over the past week, eight of the 18 indicators contributed positively to the STLFSI, three fewer than the previous week. The largest positive contributions were made by the expected inflation rate over the next 10 years (BIR_10yr) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX). Seven of the 18 indicators contributed negatively to the weekly change in the STLFSI, four more than the previous week. The largest negative contribution was made by the Merrill Lynch Bond Market Volatility Index (Mlynch_BMVI_1mo).

Over the past year, 11 of the 18 indicators made a positive contribution to the index, one more than the previous week. Seven of the 18 indicators made a negative contribution to the index, one fewer than the previous week. Over the past year, the largest positive contribution was made by the BIR_10yr and the largest negative contribution was made by the yield on corporate Baa-rated bonds (BAA). The STLFSI has consistently signaled lower-than-average levels of financial stress (an index value below zero) since the week ending Dec. 2, 2011.

For an explanation of the 18 component variables in the STLFSI, refer to the STLFSI Key.