Housing Market Conditions Improve Across Eighth District During 1Q 2015

June 03, 2015

ST. LOUIS – Housing market conditions continued to improve during the first quarter of 2015 across the seven states that comprise the St. Louis Fed's Eighth District, according to the St. Louis Fed’s latest Housing Market Conditions report.

The quarterly report provides a snapshot of housing market conditions in the U.S. and the Eighth District, which covers the states of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee.* The report also breaks down data for the District’s four main metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Little Rock, Ark.; Louisville, Ky.; Memphis, Tenn.; and St. Louis. To provide a more complete snapshot of current home price conditions, the St. Louis Fed's Housing Market Conditions report now includes CoreLogic Housing Price Index data, along with Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data.

Housing Prices: FHFA

Based on Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data, house prices in all Eighth District states except Arkansas rose during the first quarter of 2015 compared with the previous quarter. Missouri reported the largest rise of 2.7 percent, while Arkansas reported a slight decline of 0.4 percent. Nationally, house prices rose 1.4 percent during this time period.

On a year-to-year basis, prices were higher across all states. The states with the largest gains were Missouri, which was up 7.5 percent, and Tennessee, which was up 6.7 percent. Nationally, prices were up 5.8 percent during this time period.

Prices rose in the Louisville, Memphis and St. Louis MSAs, while remaining steady in the Little Rock MSA. On a year-over-year basis, fourth quarter prices were higher in all four MSAs, with Louisville having the largest gain of 5 percent.

House prices in the Little Rock and Louisville MSAs, as well as in the state of Indiana, still remain above their respective pre-recession highs.

Housing Prices: CoreLogic

Based on CoreLogic data, housing prices rose in all Eighth District states on a quarter-over-quarter basis, as well as on a year-over-year basis. The largest quarter-over-quarter gains for the District were seen in Missouri, which was up 2.6 percent, and Tennessee, which rose 1.9 percent. Nationally, prices were up 1.8 percent.

Meanwhile, the largest year-over-year gains for the first quarter of 2015 were seen in Tennessee, where house prices rose 5.6 percent compared with the first quarter of 2014, and Missouri rose 5.5 percent. Nationally, prices were up 5 percent.

By MSA, prices rose on a quarter-over-quarter basis, as well as a year-over-year basis, across all four of the Eighth District's main MSAs. St. Louis reported the largest quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year gains, at 2.3 percent and 5.1 percent retrospectively.

According to CoreLogic, house prices have now surpassed their respective pre-recession highs in the Louisville MSA and in the states of Kentucky and Tennessee.

Eighth District 1Q 2015 House Price Performance - FHFA

State/MSA	Quarter over Quarter	Year over Year
U.S.	+ 1.4 %	+ 5.8 %
AR	- 0.4 %	+ 1.7 %
IL	+ 0.7 %	+ 4.0 %
IN	+ 0.6 %	+ 3.5 %
KY	+ 0.6 %	+ 4.8 %
MO	+ 2.7 %	+ 7.5 %
MS	+ 1.4 %	+ 3.7 %
TN	+ 1.9 %	+ 6.7 %
Little Rock	+ 0.0 %	+ 1.3 %
Louisville	+ 1.3 %	+ 5.0 %
Memphis	+ 0.4 %	+ 4.2 %
St. Louis	+ 0.5 %	+ 4.1 %

Eighth District 1Q 2015 House Price Performance - CoreLogic

State/MSA	Quarter over Quarter	Year over Year
U.S.	+ 1.8 %	+ 5.0 %
AR	+ 1.1 %	+ 3.1 %
IL	+ 0.9 %	+ 2.1 %
IN	+ 0.9 %	+ 3.3 %
KY	+ 0.6 %	+ 4.3 %
MO	+ 2.6 %	+ 5.5 %
MS	+ 0.4 %	+ 4.2 %
TN	+ 1.9 %	+ 5.6 %
Little Rock	+ 0.6 %	+ 1.6 %
Louisville	+ 0.3 %	+ 4.6 %
Memphis	+ 1.6 %	+ 3.4 %
St. Louis	+ 2.3 %	+ 5.1 %

Mortgage Delinquencies

In the first quarter of 2015, the percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages (delinquent 90 days or more, or in foreclosure) declined in all Eighth District states and its four main MSAs.

In Kentucky and Missouri, delinquencies were 3.49 percent and 2.77 percent, respectively. below the national average of 3.63 percent. Meanwhile, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi and Tennessee remained above the national average.

Meanwhile, the percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages also fell in the Little Rock, Louisville, Memphis and St. Louis MSAs, with St. Louis and Louisville dipping under the the national average, at 3.15 percent and 3.54 percent, respectively.

Eighth District 1Q 2015 Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

State/MSA	Percent Seriously Delinquent	Change in basis points (bps)
U.S.	3.63%	-36 bps
AR	3.95%	-41 bps
IL	4.16%	-46 bps
IN	4.11%	-43 bps
KY	3.49%	-27 bps
MO	2.77%	-34 bps
MS	5.91%	-57 bps
TN	3.65%	-36 bps
Little Rock	4.44%	-41 bps
Louisville	3.54%	-31 bps
Memphis	6.07%	-63 bps
St. Louis	3.15%	-34 bps

* Please note: While the Eighth District is comprised of the entire state of Arkansas and only parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, analysis is conducted on a statewide basis for each state's respective report.