Consumer Confidence Surveys: Do They Boost Forecasters' Confidence?

ENDNOTES

1

The National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the official arbiter of business cycle dates, has not yet announced the end date of the recession that began in March 2001. The graph assumes that this recession ended in December 2001.

2

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, www.sca.isr.umich.edu/main.php

REFERENCES

Howrey, E. P. “The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2001, 0, pp. 175-207.

Carroll, C.D.; Fuhrer, J.C.; and Wilcox, D.W. “Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?” American Economic Review, 1994, 84, pp. 1397-408.