From Partner to Rival: Understanding China’s Technological Rise through Patent Data

In today’s global economy, a country’s technological capabilities increasingly determine its economic power and influence. One way to track these capabilities is through international patent filings—the legal protections countries seek for their citizens’ innovations in foreign markets. These patents can signal how nations position themselves in the global innovation landscape.

China’s evolution over the past decade provides an interesting case study. Once known primarily as a producer of lower-cost goods, China has transformed into a competitor in more-advanced high-tech industries traditionally dominated by advanced economies. We use the INPACT-S international patenting dataset developed by Jesse LaBelle and other researchers to document these trends.See Jesse LaBelle, Immaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, Ana Maria Santacreu and Yoto Yotov, “Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2023-031C, revised in June 2024.

What Patent Filings Tell Us about Global Strategy

When inventors or companies file patents abroad—what we call “patent exports”—they are making strategic decisions that reveal much about their global ambitions. According to recent research by Immaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Ana Maria Santacreu, companies typically pursue international patents to secure exclusive rights to sell their innovations in valuable foreign markets.See Immaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Ana Maria Santacreu’s 2025 article “Cross-border Patenting and the Margins of International Trade” in the Review of International Economics. They also use patents to prevent foreign competitors from copying their technologies. Additionally, patents help demonstrate the quality of their innovations by meeting the stringent standards of prestigious patent offices, particularly in advanced economies like the United States.See Robin Kaiji Gong, Yao Amber Li, Kalina Manova and Stephen Teng Sun’s 2023 paper “Tickets to the Global Market: First U.S. Patent Awards and Chinese Firm Exports,” CESifo Working Paper No. 10790.

When a country receives many patent applications from foreigners—referred to as “patent imports”—it signals several factors. The country is seen as a valuable market worth protecting, has domestic companies capable of replicating advanced technologies, and maintains a reliable intellectual property system. These patent flows offer insights into how countries view one another’s technological capabilities and market potential.

How Similar Are China’s Patents to Those of Advanced Economies?

To understand China’s technological positioning, we can examine the Export Similarity Index (ESI) for patents, which is based on a method formally introduced by J. Michael Finger and Mordechai E. Kreinin in 1979. This index measures the similarity in how countries distribute their international patent filings across different industrial sectors, revealing overlaps in the international protection of their innovations.The Export Similarity Index (ESI) was originally designed to measure the similarity between the export structures of different countries. In this analysis, we adapt the ESI framework to examine the similarity of patent filings between countries. Specifically, the patent-based ESI is calculated by evaluating each country’s share of its own total international patent filings allocated across different industrial sectors. For each sector, we take the smaller of the two shares (in decimal value) and sum these values across all sectors; the resulting sum is then multiplied by 100 to obtain the final index value. An ESI score of 100% indicates that both countries have identical distributions of international patent filings across industrial sectors, whereas lower scores reflect greater divergence in their patenting activities.

As shown in the first figure, Japan consistently maintains the highest patent similarity with China (hovering between 78% and 83%). The U.S. follows at 80% in 2021, having experienced steady increases since 2014. The ESI for European countries has increased, as the index for the euro area (European Union member states who use the euro) rose from 66% in 2014 to 75% in 2021. Germany, in particular, demonstrates a pronounced rise in technological alignment with China, growing from 67% to 78% over the same period.

Export Similarity Index between China and Selected Advanced Economies

SOURCE: LaBelle, Martínez-Zarzoso, Santacreu and Yotov (2023) and authors’ calculations.

The second figure breaks down the change in similarity. It shows that the growing similarity is mainly driven by the machinery and equipment sector (blue bars), with a smaller contribution from the chemicals industry.

Sectoral Breakdown of the Change in the Export Similarity Index, 2013-2021

SOURCES: LaBelle, Martínez-Zarzoso, Santacreu and Yotov (2023) and authors’ calculations.

NOTE: “Other” includes the following sectors: construction; electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply; manufacture of furniture and manufacturing not elsewhere classified; mining; oil; publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media; recycling; textile, and water collection, purification and distribution.

These patterns suggest that China’s technological specialization has increasingly converged with advanced economies, especially in sectors like machinery and equipment, indicating China’s strategic shift toward high-value innovation and its growing role as a direct competitor in technology-intensive industries traditionally dominated by developed nations.

Matching Innovation Supply with Demand

The Partner Similarity Index (PSI) offers another perspective on technological positioning. This index measures how well one country’s outbound patent sectors align with the sectors in which another country receives foreign patent applications.The Patent Similarity Index (PSI) extends the concept of the Export Similarity Index to compare an exporting country’s patent filings abroad with an importing country’s foreign patent inflows. It is calculated by summing, across all industrial sectors, the smaller share between the exporter’s international patent filings in each sector and the importer’s received foreign patents in that sector, then multiplying the total by 100. A PSI score of 100% signifies perfect alignment, meaning the exporter’s patent filings abroad match the sectors where the importer receives foreign patents, while lower scores indicate less overlap in technological specialization.

The next two figures illustrate China’s increasing strategic alignment with some advanced economies, as reflected by the PSI. China has increasingly sought patent protection abroad in sectors in which advanced economies receive numerous foreign patent applications. Among these, the U.S. maintains the highest and most stable alignment with China’s strategic patenting choices, consistently around 90%. The U.K. also exhibits high alignment (ranging from 85% to 90%), although its pattern is more volatile. Germany, however, stands out for its notable increase, showing a clear upward trend from 2013 through 2021. This pattern indicates that Germany has become increasingly central to China’s international patent strategy, which might indicate China’s intent to penetrate sectors highly valued and actively protected in European markets.

Partner Similarity Index between China’s Patent Exports and Patent Imports of Selected Advanced Economies

SOURCE: LaBelle, Martínez-Zarzoso, Santacreu and Yotov (2023) and authors’ calculations.

Sectoral Breakdown of the Change in the Partner Similarity Index for China’s Patent Exports, 2013-21

SOURCE LaBelle, Martínez-Zarzoso, Santacreu and Yotov (2023) and authors’ calculations.

NOTE: “Other” includes the following sectors: construction; electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply; manufacture of furniture and manufacturing not elsewhere classified; mining; oil; publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media; recycling; textile, and water collection, purification and distribution.

Conversely, the next two figures show that advanced economies maintain relatively stable patenting strategies toward China, with Germany showing the strongest increase in alignment after 2018. This selective approach to patent protection in China suggests caution about protecting leading-edge technologies—a pattern that aligns with Federal Reserve research highlighting China’s reduced imports of specialized European products.See François de Soyres, Ece Fisgin, Alexandre Gaillard, Ana Maria Santacreu and Henry Young’s article “The Sectoral Evolution of China’s Trade,” FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feb. 28, 2025.

Partner Similarity Index between Patent Exports of Selected Advanced Economies and China’s Patent Imports

SOURCES: LaBelle, Martínez-Zarzoso, Santacreu and Yotov (2023) and authors’ calculations.

Sectoral Breakdown of the Change in the Partner Similarity Index for China’s Patent Imports, 2013-2021

SOURCES: LaBelle, Martínez-Zarzoso, Santacreu and Yotov (2023) and authors’ calculations.

NOTE: “Other” includes the following sectors: construction; electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply; manufacture of furniture and manufacturing not elsewhere classified; mining; oil; publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media; recycling; textile, and water collection, purification and distribution.

Patents as signal of Technological Credibility

Beyond legal protection, patents serve as signals of innovation quality and reliability. In their 2023 paper, Gong and his co-authors found that obtaining patents from advanced economies like the U.S. significantly improves Chinese firms’ credibility in global markets, helping overcome information barriers that might otherwise limit their international expansion.

This quality signaling function is particularly important for firms selling sophisticated products to demanding international customers. As Martínez-Zarzoso and Santacreu explained in their 2024 article, cross-border patenting serves as a strategic signal of innovation quality that benefits companies competing in quality-intensive, differentiated product markets.

The Machinery Sector: China’s Strategic Focus

The machinery sector stands out in both patent and trade data. As shown in all three figures, machinery and equipment technologies drive the increasing similarity between China and advanced economies. This pattern may indicate China’s strategic approach of first developing technological capabilities in targeted machinery sectors, then protecting these innovations through international patent filings, and finally scaling up manufacturing and expanding exports in these same sectors. As a result, China has been positioning in high-value industries where advanced economies have traditionally dominated.

Federal Reserve research confirms this pattern, noting China’s significant growth in exports of sophisticated machinery and equipment, particularly in the automotive sector.

From Partnership to Rivalry

China’s transformation from a cooperative economic partner to a technological rival in advanced machinery sectors has significant implications. For advanced economies, international patent activities can serve as early warning signals of competitive shifts, prompting reconsideration of intellectual property policies and innovation protection. Indeed, patent data offers a uniquely revealing window into countries’ technological strategies before these strategies fully manifest in trade statistics or market shares.

Notes

1. See Jesse LaBelle, Immaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, Ana Maria Santacreu and Yoto Yotov, “Cross-border Patenting, Globalization, and Development,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2023-031C, revised in June 2024.
2. See Immaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Ana Maria Santacreu’s 2025 article “Cross-border Patenting and the Margins of International Trade” in the Review of International Economics.
3. See Robin Kaiji Gong, Yao Amber Li, Kalina Manova and Stephen Teng Sun’s 2023 paper “Tickets to the Global Market: First U.S. Patent Awards and Chinese Firm Exports,” CESifo Working Paper No. 10790.
4. The Export Similarity Index (ESI) was originally designed to measure the similarity between the export structures of different countries. In this analysis, we adapt the ESI framework to examine the similarity of patent filings between countries. Specifically, the patent-based ESI is calculated by evaluating each country’s share of its own total international patent filings allocated across different industrial sectors. For each sector, we take the smaller of the two shares (in decimal value) and sum these values across all sectors; the resulting sum is then multiplied by 100 to obtain the final index value. An ESI score of 100% indicates that both countries have identical distributions of international patent filings across industrial sectors, whereas lower scores reflect greater divergence in their patenting activities.
5. The Patent Similarity Index (PSI) extends the concept of the Export Similarity Index to compare an exporting country’s patent filings abroad with an importing country’s foreign patent inflows. It is calculated by summing, across all industrial sectors, the smaller share between the exporter’s international patent filings in each sector and the importer’s received foreign patents in that sector, then multiplying the total by 100. A PSI score of 100% signifies perfect alignment, meaning the exporter’s patent filings abroad match the sectors where the importer receives foreign patents, while lower scores indicate less overlap in technological specialization.
6. See François de Soyres, Ece Fisgin, Alexandre Gaillard, Ana Maria Santacreu and Henry Young’s article “The Sectoral Evolution of China’s Trade,” FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feb. 28, 2025.